Jesse Berst, a guy we regularly follow for his insight and analysis on display at SmartGridNews.com, posed this question in his latest blog. He went on to say …..
Read the forecasts from the energy agencies and they all presume that consumption per capita will continue about the same. But consider these trends:
• Companies such as Johnson Controls, Schneider, Serious Energy and many others claim they can reduce the energy consumption of a commercial building by 10% at a minimum, in most cases by 20% or even 30%.
• Net zero housing developments are springing up in the American Southwest and they will spread to other areas within the decade.
• Today’s refrigerators use 40% less electricity than they did a decade ago. Other appliances are on a similar energy-reduction track.
• Today’s LED lights use as much as 85% less energy than compact fluorescents, which are themselves far more efficient than incandescents.
• Research laboratories are urgently working on new forms of air conditioning that consume far less energy.
I could go on with other examples, but the trend is clear. Energy use from many major sources is set to drop rapidly. If we fall into further recession, demand will drop even more.
Looking out 10 to 20 years, will we have an oversupply? Or will new uses such as electric transportation more than make up the gap? Getting this right is a multi-billion-dollar question. As in billions of dollars of power plants we may not need to build.
You can share your thoughts on this provocative topic HERE.
September 6th, 2011