April 25 (Bloomberg) — The International Energy Agency said
the world may face a crude oil shortage by 2013 because of
slower investments in oil exploration and production by OPEC
members and other producing countries.

“I can’t rule out the possibility of an oil supply constraint
in 2013 and 2014,” Nobuo Tanaka, Paris-based IEA’s executive
director, said in an interview in Tokyo. “Investments
have dropped, and if this continues, an oil crunch would
emerge.”

Members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries have delayed a total of 35 drilling projects, the Wall Street Journal reported on Feb. 10, citing the group’s Secretary General Abdalla Salem el-Badri. Saudi Arabia and Kuwait have called off and deferred ventures to find new fields, expand existing wells and build refineries, according to Japan’s trade ministry.

“Robust demand for oil, food and metals will return after the world’s economy starts picking up in the next few years, led by China and India,” Ken Hasegawa, a commodity derivative sales manager at Newedge in Tokyo said before an interview. “Even as countries accelerate a shift away from oil to alternative fuels, oil and natural gas will remain the main energy sources in the next few decades.”

Finance chiefs from the Group of Seven yesterday predicted a
“weak” economic recovery will start to take hold in coming
months as evidence mounts that the worst of the recession is
over. Two months ago the G-7 forecast the “severe downturn”
would persist through most of this year.

Spare Capacity

Tanaka said today OPEC’s spare oil-production capacity will
fall below 3.5 million barrels a day in 2013. In February, he
had projected the group’s excess capability at that level.
Details of the agency’s supply forecast will be published in
its medium-term energy report in June, he said.

The IEA will also publish by October its outlook for global
carbon emissions for 2030. The report will provide forecasts
for carbon dioxide levels by regions and countries, he said.

Crude oil prices on the New York Mercantile Exchange soared to
a record $147.27 a barrel on July 11 and have since plunged 65
percent to $51.55.