By Lawrence Solomon

Editor’s Note - An anti-nuclear, Toronto-based,
urban-loving, 1970s peace activist who opposes subsidies
to the oil industry might be the last person expected to
detail cracks in the science of global warming. But
Lawrence Solomon has done just that in a short book with
a long subtitle: The Deniers: The world-renowned
scientists who stood up against global warming hysteria,
political persecution, and fraud (and those who are too
fearful to do so). The outspoken Solomon penned the
article below for Canada’s National Post.

Up! Up! Up! The world is consuming more and more energy
and, as if by miracle, the amount left to consume grows
ever higher. Never before in human history has energy
been accessible in greater abundance and in more regions,
never before has mankind had more energy options and
faced a brighter energy future.

Take oil, the scarcest of the major energy commodities.
In the Americas, proven oil reserves have increased from
170 billion barrels to 180 billion barrels over the last
two decades, according to the 2008 Statistical World
Review from British Petroleum. In Europe and Eurasia,
proven oil reserves almost doubled, from 76 billion
barrels to 144. Africa’s proven oil reserves did double,
from 58 billion barrels to 117. Even the Asia Pacific
region, where China and India are reputed to be sucking
up everything in sight, has increased its proven
reserves. And the Middle East, the gas tank of the world,
shows no sign of slowing down — its reserves soared by
almost 200 billion barrels, from a whopping 567 billion
barrels to a super-whopping 756.

Bottom line for the world: an incredible 36% increase in
oil reserves during the two decades that saw the greatest
globalization-spurred oil consumption in the history of
mankind. And that doesn’t include the 152 billion barrels
in proven oil reserves obtainable from Canada’s tar
sands. Is there any reason to doubt that the next two
decades won’t build on the steady growth of the last two?

These oil reserves aren’t the end of it. These figures –
for the year ending December 2006 — represent oil that’s
not only known to be available, but also economic at 2006
prices using 2006 technology. Since prices have soared in
the last year, and technology has improved too, BP’s
annual assessment for the 2007 year will show greater
proven oil reserves still.

But this is still not the end of it. Unconventional oil
reserves are now in play. In 2005, the Rand Corporation
estimated that the oil shale in America’s Green River
Formation, which covers portions of Colorado, Utah and
Wyoming, contains 1.5 to 1.8 trillion barrels of oil,
with as much as 1.1 trillion barrels of oil recoverable,
an amount comparable to the reserves of four Saudi
Arabias. Oil shale becomes recoverable at $95 a barrel,
it determined. With oil now trading at $140 a barrel, oil
shale

exploitation is now very much economic. Then there’s
Canada’s tar sands, with its even greater
potential–estimates of the total reserves that may be
available top two trillion barrels, or eight Saudi
Arabias.

This is still not the end to it. Most of the oil we know
about lies in the well travelled portions of the globe.
But most of the world remains unexplored — the interiors
of Africa, Asia and South America have seen relatively
little oil exploration. Oil exploration in the oceans,
too, is in its infancy. For all practical purposes,
mankind has limitless oil supplies available to it. The
story is similar for natural gas and coal, the other
major nonrenewable sources of energy. And for nuclear
power. And for the renewables.

The amount of solar power landing on Earth could supply
our current needs 10,000 times over. This potential will
soon start to be realized on a large scale thanks to
breakthroughs in the U. S. and Israel that have
dramatically brought down the cost of solar technology.
Wind also represents an inexhaustible resource, as seen
in a 2005 NASA-funded study at Stanford University of
viable wind sites worldwide. It found that wind power
could satisfy global demand seven times over, assuming a
realistic capture rate of 20%. Some European countries
already meet a significant portion of their power needs
with wind.

The world is awash with exploitable energy, both
renewable and non-renewable. Availability is not at issue
and never has been.

The only issue is the cost –both economic and
environmental –at which it can be exploited.

Nuclear currently fails on economic grounds. But most
fossil fuel technologies don’t need subsidies and soon,
neither will most renewable technologies. That leaves the
environment as the chief determinant of what energy we
use, and where we use it. Thanks to environmental
awareness and the high energy prices we now face, energy
production has become ever cleaner, safer, and more
efficient, giving us more meaningful options than ever
before.

Whatever the outcome, whatever energy forms we ultimately
rely on, the table is diverse and bountiful, allowing the
world economy to grow large and to grow cleanly. And it
will have been largely set by environmentalists.

Lawrence Solomon is executive director of the Energy Probeand Urban Renaissance Institute.
LawrenceSolomon@nextcity.com